NXP Lowers Projection for 2011 NFC Phone Shipments

Jul 29 2011

NXP Semiconductors, the largest supplier of NFC chips, has lowered its projection for total NFC phone shipments for 2011 to 40 million or less–substantially lower than the 70 million it had been projecting.

CEO Richard Clemmer, speaking late yesterday to financial analysts on a conference call following release of NXP’s second quarter results, said orders for NFC chips from handset makers for the second quarter had come in lower than expected, meaning the “ramp” of NFC phone shipments by handset makers projected for the third and fourth quarters of 2011 would be delayed.

“We expected NFC to have an initial ramp in Q3 and a strong ramp in Q4, and we clearly see that pushed out a quarter or two,” Clemmer said, adding: “You know, all indications we have is that the opportunity is just as significant as we had said. But clearly, if you look at it on a near-term basis, it hasn’t materialized at the rate we had planned for and the rate we had put capacity in place for.”

Clemmer seemed to blame the delay on mobile operators for failing to order as many phones as expected because of continued problems agreeing on NFC business models and also on handset makers that are experiencing “business challenges.” He did not elaborate.

But Clemmer said NXP is working with handset makers on 60 to 62 models to incorporate its NFC chips and possibly its secure elements and NFC phone software. The highest profile design win for NXP has been for Google’s Nexus S NFC phones, but the chip maker has also announced wins for Android phones to be introduced by Sony Ericsson and for some ZTE phones. And NXP also supplies Nokia’s NFC phones, among others. NFC Times reported in May that NXP was working with handset makers on about 40 NFC models. 

That figure has grown to 60-plus models. But it remains to be seen when all of these models will hit the market. And it’s unlikely that the iPhone is one of them. Clemmer said in May that he’d be surprised if the next iPhone from Apple supported NFC.

NXP’s lowering of its projection for NXP phone shipments for 2011 also means it will probably lower its projection for 2012. It had earlier said that NFC phone shipments would double next year from 2011. This was based largely on the 70 million phone projection, which would have placed the 2012 shipment forecast at about 140 million.

And Clemmer in May suggested NFC phone shipments could approach 100 million units this year if Google’s rosy projections for Android NFC phone shipments come to pass. NXP had also said earlier that shipments might come in as low as 40 million. In its latest projection, NXP said the actual shipment figures might even be “slightly” below 40 million.

NXP’s NFC phone projections include phones using NFC chips from all suppliers, though Netherlands-based NXP has the largest share of the budding market.

“With it being pushed out a quarter, it would be slightly lower for next year than we’d originally anticipated,” said Clemmer in response to a question from an analyst, adding that NXP still expects at least a doubling of phone shipments next year. “But there’s still a wide range of outcomes associated with it. It depends on how successful Google is in pushing the Google Wallet through a broad array of platforms. It depends on the 60 handsets that we are currently working with, how fast they ramp up, and actually some suppliers pushing out new models.”

Handset makers say they are ready to ship phones with NFC inside, but haven’t yet received the big orders from mobile operators, said Stela Bokun, senior analyst in Europe for Pyramid Research, who projected earlier this year that NFC smartphone sales would reach only about 11.5 million units. She might revise the figure.

“Operators are not sure how much they will potentially earn from NFC based services,” she told NFC Times. “Since they don’t know how much money NFC services will generate, there is a big internal struggle between their departments.”

NXP executives said yesterday they had invested in expanded manufacturing capacity late last year to be ready for the ramp-up of chip shipments in the second quarter, which didn’t happen. That hurt Q2 gross margins. The delay in NFC along with guidance for the third quarter by NXP that overall sales would be down by as much as 5% compared with the second quarter, did not make investors happy. They sent NXP shares plunging by as much as 16.3% this morning on the Nasdaq exchange, following the release of the Q2 results after the close of trading Thursday afternoon in New York. The share recovered most of the ground later in the day and closed down 3.7%.

Inside Secure, the other major provider of NFC chips so far, which is supplying Research in Motion and also ZTE, was not available for comment.

Clemmer noted that NFC still makes up only a small portion of the chip maker’s Identification unit and even a smaller part of its total revenue. The ID unit had sales of $194 million during the second quarter, up just 2.6% from the first quarter.

Sales of Mifare chips for contactless transit cards also dropped during the second quarter compared with the first quarter of 2011, but NXP didn’t release a breakout of figures. Clemmer characterized the drop as a “supply chain correction.”

“We’re still seeing very strong demand,” he said. “We still have 1.2 billon travelers today using our Mifare tags in 650 cities that have deployed Mifare.”

He said shipments for of chips for banking cards, including those with contactless interfaces, increased during the second quarter, though many of the chips went for cards to be issued in developing countries, and thus brought lower prices. That also hurt margins in the ID unit, said NXP.

Article comments

 
guoxing Jul 30 2011

Sales of Mifare chips for contactless transit cards also dropped during the second quarter compared with the first quarter of 2011, but NXP didn’t release a breakout of figures. Clemmer characterized the drop as a “supply chain correction.” !! i can't understand

Dan Balaban's picture
Dan Balaban Aug 1 2011

He’s saying that transit agencies ordered a lot of Mifare cards during Q1 and so had inventories on hand and, therefore, didn’t order as many cards in Q2.

Please register or login to post a comment.

HEADLINE NEWS

Australian Transit Agency to Launch Mobility-as-a-Service Trial as It Pursues Long-Term MaaS Strategy

Plans by Transport for New South Wales, Australia’s largest transit agency, to launch a trial enabling users to plan, book and pay for multimodal rides is the next step toward the agency’s long-ter

Updated: U.S. Transit Agency Seeks to Reduce–Though Not Eliminate–Cash Acceptance with New Fare-Collection System

Updated: The Spokane Transit Authority in Washington state confirmed that its new fare-collection system will include contactless open-loop payments–with a beta test planned for next October, a spokesman told NFC Times' sister publication Mobility Payments.

UK Government Seeks to Bring London-Style Contactless Fare Payments System to Other Regions

The UK government’s plan to equip 700 rail stations over the next three years to accept contactless open-loop payments is a major initiative, as it seeks to replicate the success of London’s contactless pay-as-you go fare payments system elsewhere in the country–a goal that has proved elusive in the past.

More Cities in Finland Expected to Move to Open-Loop Fare Payments

A fourth city in Finland is beginning to roll out contactless open-loop payments, with “more in the pipeline,” according to one supplier on the project, making the Nordic country one of the latest hotspots for the technology.

Moscow Metro Expands Test of ‘Virtual Troika’ in Pays Wallets, as It Continues to Develop Digital-Payments Services

Moscow Metro is recruiting more users to test its “Virtual Troika” card in two NFC wallets, those supporting Google Pay and Samsung Pay, as one of the world’s largest subway operators continues to seek more ways for its customers to pay for rides.

Ohio Transit Agency Expects Significant Revenue Loss as it Builds Equity with Fare Capping

The Central Ohio Transit Authority, or COTA, officially launched its new digital-payments service Monday, including a fare-capping feature that the agency estimates will cost it $1.8 million per year in lost fare revenue, the agency confirmed to Mobility Payments.

Special Report: Interest Grows in ‘White-Label EMV’ for Closed-Loop Transit Cards

As more transit agencies introduce open-loop fare payments, interest is starting to grow in use of white-label EMV cards that agencies can issue in place of proprietary closed-loop cards for riders who don’t have bank cards or don’t want to use them to pay fares.

Swedish Transit Agency Launches Express Mode Feature for Apple Pay, though Most Ticketing Still with Barcode-Based App

Skånetrafiken, the transit agency serving one of Sweden’s largest counties, announced today it has expanded its contactless open-loop payments service to include the Express Mode feature for Apple Pay.

Major Bus Operators in Hong Kong Now Accepting Open-Loop Payments–Adding More Competition for Octopus

Two more bus operators in Hong Kong on Saturday launched acceptance of open-loop contactless fare payments, with both also accepting QR code-based mobile ticketing–as the near ubiquitous closed-loop Octopus card continues to see more competition.

Moscow Metro Launches Full Rollout of ‘Face Pay;’ Largest Biometric Payments Service of Its Kind

Touting it as the largest rollout of biometric payments in the world, Moscow Metro launched its high-profile “Face Pay” service Friday, as expected, and predicted that 10% to 15% would regularly us

Indonesian Capital Seeks to Expand to Multimodal Fare Collection and MaaS

Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, whose metropolitan area is home to more than 30 million people, is notorious for its stifling traffic congestion. In response, the government metro and light-rail networks and now it is funding an expansion of the fare-collection system to enable more multimodal payments and to build a mobility-as-a-service platform.

Exclusive: NFC Wallets Grow as Share of Contactless Fare Payments and Not Only Because of Covid

Transit agencies that have rolled out open-loop contactless payments are seeing growing use of NFC wallets to pay fares, as Covid-wary passengers see convenience in tapping their phones or wearables to pay.